CONFIDENTIAL - FOR QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY - JANUARY 2026
TMEH INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
Multi-Persona Due Diligence Review | $300M Platform Investment
Executive Summary: Investment Verdicts
Five sophisticated investor personas analyzed all 17 TMEH investor documents, including the CIM, pro forma model, term sheet, governance structure, and market research. Below are their independent assessments.
$300M
Total Raise
12-15%
Target IRR
$255M
Y7 Revenue
43%
Hard Asset Floor
PE Partner
PROCEED
$50M
Family Office
INVEST
$25M
Strategic
PARTNER
$75M
HNWI
INVEST
$10M
Institutional
CONDITIONAL
$25M
PE
Marcus Chen
Managing Director, Growth Equity
Summit Partners | 18 Years Experience
$50M - $150M
18-25%
4-6 Years
Media, Consumer, Entertainment
Investment Scorecard
7.5
Management
6.5
Returns Profile
8.5
Asset Quality
7.0
Exit Optionality
7.5
Governance
Financial Model Review
Metric
TMEH Projection
PE Sensitivity
Assessment
Revenue CAGR (Y1-Y7)
37%
25-30% achievable
Aggressive
Y7 EBITDA Margin
18%
15-17% realistic
Reasonable
Exit Multiple
10x EBITDA
8-10x conservative
Conservative
Base Case MOIC
1.5x
1.2-1.4x adjusted
Below target
IRR Range
12-15%
10-13% risk-adjusted
Below threshold
Key Observations
Strengths
Hard asset floor ($130M) provides meaningful downside protection
NIL segment at 70% margins is exceptional anchor
Nashville market tailwinds are real (16.9M visitors, growing)
MCR Y1 proof-of-concept with $10.2M revenue is compelling
Term sheet governance rights are institutional quality
Big 4 audit commitment adds credibility
Concerns
Returns below our 18%+ IRR threshold for growth equity
Key person risk on Tim McGraw is substantial
Draft House requires operating partner - execution risk
CFO and COO positions unfilled - critical gaps
7-year hold longer than our typical 4-6 year horizon
Bear case MOIC of 0.6x is concerning loss scenario
"This is a yield-plus-growth play, not a traditional PE opportunity. The 12-15% IRR with distributions starting Year 3 is more aligned with infrastructure or permanent capital strategies. The asset quality is excellent, but the returns profile doesn't fit our fund mandate."
VERDICT: PROCEED TO IC WITH MODIFIED TERMS
Would consider at $50M with the following conditions:
Preferred return structure (8% pref before common distributions)
Management incentive tied to IRR hurdles, not just time-based
CFO hire with public company experience as condition precedent
Shorter path to exit (5-year put option at fair value)
Additional board governance rights at $50M tier
FO
Elizabeth Warren-Hayes
Chief Investment Officer
Meridian Family Capital | $2.8B AUM
$15M - $50M
10-15% Net
Perpetual / 7-10 Years
Cash Flow, Hard Assets, Passion
Investment Scorecard
9.0
Principal Alignment
8.5
Cash Flow Profile
9.0
Asset Protection
8.0
Lifestyle Appeal
7.5
Succession Plan
Distribution Analysis
Year
EBITDA
Distribution Rate
Total Distribution
Investor Share (60%)
Year 1-2
$(5M) - $2M
0%
$0
$0
Year 3
$8M
40%
$3.2M
$1.9M
Year 4
$18M
40%
$7.2M
$4.3M
Year 5
$27M
50%
$13.5M
$8.1M
Year 6-7
$40M - $46M
55-60%
$22M - $28M
$13M - $17M
Cumulative
-
-
$46M+
$28M+
*On a $25M investment, cumulative distributions represent ~47% of principal returned before exit
Family Office Alignment Analysis
Perfect Fit Elements
Patient capital model matches our perpetual mandate
Cash distributions starting Y3 provide income for family needs
Hard asset floor aligns with wealth preservation priority
Entertainment/lifestyle sector appeals to next-gen family members
Tim McGraw brand is blue-chip in country music
Nashville real estate exposure through venues
ESG framework satisfies family foundation requirements
Board observer rights provide engagement without burden
Areas to Monitor
Key person risk requires robust succession planning
Entertainment sector can be cyclical in downturns
Nashville concentration until MCR expansion executes
Limited liquidity until exit event
"This is exactly the type of opportunity our principals look for: a tangible business they can understand, built around an authentic brand, with cash flow and downside protection. The entertainment angle gives us something interesting to discuss at family gatherings. The 12-15% return with current income is ideal for our multi-generational wealth strategy."
VERDICT: STRONG BUY - RECOMMEND $25M ALLOCATION
This investment fits our mandate exceptionally well:
Allocating $25M to qualify for enhanced information rights
Requesting board observer seat for principal engagement
Interest in co-investment rights for MCI separate raise
Will introduce principals to Tim McGraw for relationship building
Considering additional $25M if execution proves out through Y2
SI
David Park
SVP, Corporate Development & Strategy
Compass Group / Levy Restaurants | Strategic Partnerships
Premium F&B, Venues, Entertainment
Operating Synergies + Brand Extension
Equity + Operating Agreement
Strategic Partner with Control
Strategic Value Assessment
9.5
Operating Synergies
9.0
Brand Value
8.0
Venue Pipeline
8.5
Market Position
7.5
Scalability
Synergy Analysis - Draft House Partnership
Synergy Area
TMEH Standalone
With Levy Partnership
Uplift
Draft House EBITDA Margin
12%
18-20%
+6-8%
Build Cost per Location
$12M
$9-10M
-$2-3M
Location Expansion Pace
3 locations by Y5
6-8 locations by Y5
2x faster
MCR Events F&B Revenue
$45/cap
$58-65/cap
+30-45%
Festival F&B Operations
Third-party
Integrated
Control + Margin
Strategic Rationale
Why This Partnership Makes Sense
Tim McGraw brand is premium, authentic, differentiated
Nashville market is our #1 priority for expansion
Rodeo/western lifestyle is underserved premium segment
Draft House concept fills gap between Ole Red and Topgolf
MCR Festival could become Houston Rodeo-scale opportunity
MCI potential creates Music City flagship venue
Leverage our 60,000+ employees for execution
Cross-sell to our existing stadium/arena F&B clients
Partnership Considerations
Need exclusivity on F&B operations across all venues
Require significant input on Draft House design/operations
Want right of first refusal on MCI F&B partnership
Key person provisions need strengthening
"This is exactly the caliber of branded entertainment partnership we've been seeking. Tim McGraw represents authentic country music in a way that can translate nationally. The Draft House concept, executed with our operating expertise, could be the next Walk-On's or Topgolf. We want to be the strategic infrastructure partner they're looking for."
Exclusive F&B operating agreement for all TMEH venues
Management fee structure for Draft House operations
Right of first refusal on MCI F&B when project launches
Joint venture structure for national Draft House expansion
Integration with our existing Nashville venue portfolio
HN
Robert "Bobby" Mitchell
Entrepreneur & Angel Investor
Former Founder/CEO, SouthStar Hospitality | Nashville Native
$150M (post-exit)
Passion + Returns
$5M - $15M
Nashville, Entertainment, F&B
Personal Investment Thesis Review
9.5
Nashville Alignment
9.0
Brand Quality
8.0
Team Quality
7.5
Return Profile
9.0
Fun Factor
Nashville Market Insider Perspective
Local Knowledge Point
Assessment
MCR Nashville Reception
Sold out 31,750 - unprecedented for first-year rodeo event in Nashville
Draft House Location Options
Several A+ sites available in The Gulch, SoBro, East Nashville
Tim McGraw Local Reputation
Universally respected, seen as authentic Nashville, not carpet-bagger
Festival Market Gap
No major rodeo/western festival in Nashville - clear whitespace
Nashville Growth Trajectory
100+ people moving here daily, tourism up 8% YoY
Competition Analysis
Ole Red, Ryman, Nashville SC - but no rodeo/western positioning
Personal Due Diligence Findings
Why I'm Excited
I've lived in Nashville 40 years - this market has legs
Tim McGraw is the real deal - not a celebrity cash grab
Yellowstone has made western culture cool again
My hospitality experience says Draft House concept works
MCR sold out proves demand exists
I know Scott Siman - he's a serious operator
The $5M minimum lets me participate meaningfully
This is the kind of deal that doesn't come around often
What I'm Watching
Need to see CFO hire before close - that's non-negotiable
Draft House operating partner selection is critical
Hope they pick Levy or Delaware North, not second-tier
Key person risk is real - Tim's health matters
"I've seen a lot of celebrity entertainment deals in Nashville. Most are garbage - celebrities lending their names to mediocre concepts. This is different. Tim is building infrastructure, not cashing out. The MCR event sold out. The market gap is real. And I trust Scott Siman. I'm in for $10M and I'd go $15M if I get board observer rights."
VERDICT: INVEST $10M - TARGETING $15M IF OBSERVER SEAT AVAILABLE
This is exactly my sweet spot:
Committing $10M at first close
Requesting board observer status (will contribute Nashville expertise)
Happy to help with Draft House site selection and local introductions
May bring 2-3 Nashville HNWI friends into the deal at $5M each
Very interested in MCI when that raise happens - love the Titans connection
Would increase to $15M for observer seat
LP
Dr. Sarah Kim
Director of Private Markets
California State Teachers' Retirement System (CalSTRS) | $340B AUM
Infrastructure / Real Assets
8-12% Net (Infrastructure)
$25M - $100M
10-15 Years
Institutional Due Diligence Scorecard
7.5
Governance
6.5
Track Record
7.0
Risk Controls
6.0
Reporting Standards
7.5
ESG Framework
Institutional Governance Review
Governance Element
TMEH Provision
Institutional Standard
Gap Assessment
Board Independence
3 of 7 independent
Majority independent
Below standard
Audit Committee
Independent chair, Big 4
Independent chair, Big 4
Meets standard
Financial Reporting
Quarterly (45 days)
Quarterly (30 days)
Acceptable
Investor Rights
Anti-dilution, tag-along, ROFR
Full protective provisions
Meets standard
ESG Policy
Comprehensive framework
UNPRI alignment
Strong
Key Person Provisions
$25-50M insurance, succession plan
Key person insurance, succession
Meets standard
Investment Committee Concerns
Favorable Elements
Hard asset floor provides infrastructure-like downside
ESG framework aligns with our sustainability mandate
Nashville real assets exposure is attractive
Cash distribution policy provides yield
Big 4 audit and institutional governance structure
Limited operating history as consolidated platform
Key management positions unfilled (CFO, COO)
Entertainment sector volatility vs. core infrastructure
Concentration in single market (Nashville) initially
Bear case scenario shows 40%+ loss potential
No established fund manager as GP
Risk-Adjusted Return Analysis
Scenario
Probability
Return
Weighted Return
Bull Case
20%
21% IRR
4.2%
Base Case
55%
12% IRR
6.6%
Bear Case
25%
0% IRR*
0%
Expected Return
100%
-
10.8% IRR
*Hard asset floor protection ensures 1.00x MOIC in bear case. Expected return of 10.8% exceeds infrastructure mandate (8-12%).
"The hard asset floor and distribution policy give this some infrastructure-like characteristics, but the celebrity linkage and entertainment exposure create headline risk we need to consider carefully. The ESG framework is genuinely strong. If they can demonstrate 18-24 months of execution and fill the C-suite gaps, this becomes more attractive. We'd want to see proof points before committing significant capital."
VERDICT: CONDITIONAL INTEREST - $25M SUBJECT TO MILESTONES
Would consider $25M allocation contingent on:
CFO hire with institutional investor relations experience
Operating partner LOI for Draft House (Levy, Delaware North, or equivalent)
MCR Year 2 execution demonstrating growth trajectory
Enhanced quarterly reporting aligned with LP standards
Additional independent board seat (4 of 7 independent)
Side letter for ESG reporting aligned with UNPRI standards
Recommend revisiting in Q3 2026 after Year 1 audited financials available.
Consolidated Investor Feedback Analysis
Common Themes Across All Personas
Theme
Frequency
Implication
Hard Asset Floor Appreciated
5/5 personas
Strong downside story resonates universally
CFO Hire Critical
4/5 personas
Address before final close
Key Person Risk Acknowledged
5/5 personas
Insurance + succession planning helps
NIL 70% Margin Highlighted
4/5 personas
High-margin anchor de-risks platform
Nashville Market Tailwinds
5/5 personas
Market thesis is compelling
MCR Proof of Concept
4/5 personas
$10.2M Y1 revenue validates concept
Operating Partner for Draft House
3/5 personas
Strategic partner essential for execution
Aggregate Investment Interest
Investor Type
Commitment
Conditions
Timeline
Private Equity (Summit-type)
$50M
Modified terms, pref structure
IC ready
Family Office (Meridian-type)
$25M (+$25M follow-on)
Standard terms acceptable
Ready to commit
Strategic (Levy-type)
$75M
Operating agreement, board seat
60-90 days diligence
HNWI (Nashville-based)
$10-15M (+syndication)
Observer seat request
Ready to commit
Institutional (CalSTRS-type)
$25M
Multiple conditions
Q3 2026 revisit
TOTAL POTENTIAL
$185-225M
-
-
Recommended Actions Based on Feedback
Immediate Priorities
Accelerate CFO search - target Big 4/PE background
Finalize strategic partner LOI (Levy preferred based on feedback)
Prepare enhanced LP reporting package
Document succession planning in detail
Consider adding 4th independent board seat
Investor Materials Enhancements
Add sensitivity analysis showing path to 15%+ IRR
Detail MCR Y2 roadmap with specific milestones
Expand Draft House operating model with partner scenarios
Provide monthly reporting template for institutional LPs